Tuesday, December 31, 2013

2014 Projected Fantasy Draft 1st, 2nd & 3rd Rounds

It's never too early to look towards the next Fantasy Football season. Here is the final part of my 2014 Pre-Draft Rankings. Here we'll look at the projected first three rounds of your 2014 fantasy draft:

Round One
1. Jamaal Charles - RB
2. LeSean McCoy - RB
3. Adrian Peterson - RB
4. Matt Forte - RB
5. Peyton Manning - QB
6. Marshawn Lynch - RB
7. Calvin Johnson - WR
8. Jimmy Graham - TE
9. Knowshon Moreno - RB
10. Dez Bryant - WR
11. Aaron Rodgers - QB
12. Drew Brees - QB

•As always, running backs dominate the first round but not as much as usual.
•With the kind of seasons Peyton Manning and Drew Brees had, plus the return if Aaron Rodgers, you can't ignore these top quarterbacks as they will have a huge impact on your fantasy season and will go off the boards early.
•Jimmy Graham at 8 might be a little high, but the top tight ends that will produce each week for you will be at a premium in 2014, just like in 2013. It would not be unwise to use your first pick of the draft on Graham. 

Round Two
13. Josh Gordon - WR
14. Eddie Lacy - RB
15. DeMarco Murray - RB
16. AJ Green - WR
17. Julio Jones - WR
18. Matthew Stafford - QB
19. Alfred Morris - RB
20. Arian Foster - RB
21. Andre Johnson - WR
22. Reggie Bush - RB
23. Brandon Marshall - WR
24. Tom Brady - QB

•In round two we see more wide receivers beginning with the breakout star of the 2014 season, Josh Gordon. Gordon will go in the first round and will be the first receiver taken in many 2014 drafts as well. 
•Eddie Lacy had a fantastic rookie season and will be a top feature back in 2014. He will be the first rookie of the 2013 class to be drafted and like Gordon could be taken in round one. 
•Only two quarterbacks taken in round two in Stafford and Brady. Stafford tailed off in the end of 2013, but still had a solid season. 
•Reggie Bush might go earlier in PPR leagues. 

Round Three
25. Russell Wilson - QB
26. Zac Stacy - RB
27. Le'Veon Bell - RB
28. DeMaryius Thomas - WR
29. Alshon Jeffrey - WR
30. Tony Romo - QB
31. Julius Thomas - TE
32. Philip Rivers - QB
33. Cam Newton - QB
34. Andrew Luck - QB
35. Nick Foles - QB
36. Giovanni Bernard - RB

•Round three is the round of the quarterback. This group is the next tier of fantasy quarterbacks and all could probably sneak their way into the end of round two. 
•Running backs from the 2013 class make a splash in round three as well. Look out for Bell and Stacy to be consistent performers next season as they will be full time feature backs. Bernard is close as well and if the Bengals use him as more of a feature back instead of sharing time with Benjarvus Green-Ellis, he could be a great pickup in the third round. 
•Again, it might be early to take a tight end here, but with the group of tight ends  being so thin it would not be unwise to take the second best tight end on the board in Julius Thomas with your third pick. 

Monday, December 30, 2013

2014 Projected Rankings By Position: Tight Ends

It's never too early to look towards the next Fantasy Football season. Here is part four of my 2014 Pre-Draft Rankings by position. Here we'll look at the Tight Ends:

Top 10
1. Jimmy Graham
2. Julius Thomas
3. Vernon Davis
4. Jason Witten
5. Jordan Cameron
6. Greg Olsen 
7. Jordan Reed
8. Martellus Bennett
9. Charles Clay
10. Antonio Gates

•Perhaps the biggest separation between best and second best players at any given position occur at tight end. Graham is clearly the best tight end in the NFL and will continue to dominate next season. 
•Julius Thomas had a great break out year and will be the second tight end off draft boards next season. 
•Jordan Reed was very good when he was healthy and I expect him to build on a strong rookie campaign next year when he comes back healthy. A healthy RGIII will help him as well. 
•Antonio Gates sneaks into the top ten because he's Antonio Gates. His production increased this year under a rejuvenated Philip Rivers, but it's clear the athleticism is starting to drift. 

Just Missed
Coby Fleener
Delanie Walker 
Heath Miller

•Fleener and Andrew Luck have good chemistry together and I expect another solid season next year. He could end up cracking the top ten.  

Sleepers
Tim Wright
Rob Housler
Ladarius Green

•Wright is another rookie who was solid but will improve with experience. Him and fellow sophomore quarterback Mike Glennon should both increase their production in 2014. 
•Rob Housler is the classic case of a lot of talent but can't stay healthy. He's shown glimpses of what could be this season and if he's fully healthy in 2014, watch out. 
•Ladarius Green is the heir to the tight end throne in San Diego. An athletic freak, Green can catch any ball and is currently stuck behind one of the all time greats in Antonio Gates. If he's given the opportunity, Green could be a huge steal. 

Notable Omissions
Rob Gronkowski
Jermichael Finley
Tony Gonzalez

•The biggest name left of this list is Rob Gronkowski. An injury plagued 2013, and an offseason of rehab ahead mean that no one really knows when (if?) Gronk will be back in 2014. 
•As with Gronkowski, Jermichael Finley suffered what could be a career ending injury in 2013. Who knows if he will be back next year. 
•Tony Gonzalez is the GOAT at tight end. It's very likely that he will retire this year and hang up the cleats. There's a slim chance he comes back though, and if he does he'll be right back in the top ten. 

Friday, December 27, 2013

Week 16 Recap

 Here is how my Week 16 Start 'Em/Sit 'Em picks faired:

QB

Start Colin Kaepernick -  

Predicted Stats - 21/31, 265 yards, 2 TD, 51 yards rushing - 23.7 points

Actual Stats - 13/21, 197, 1 TD, 51 yards rushing, 1 TD - 22.98 points

Sit Carson Palmer -   

Predicted Stats - 24/46, 231 yards, 1 TD, 2 Int - 9.24 points

Actual Stats - 13/25, 178 yards, 1 TD, 4 Int - 3.12 points

RB

Start Alfred Morris & DeMarco Murray - 

Predicted Stats - Morris: 126 yards, 2 TD, 1 rec, 7 yards - 25.3 points, Murray: 143 yards, 1 TD, 4 rec, 42 yards - 24.5 points

Actual Stats - Morris: 88 yards, 1 TD - 14.8 points, Murray: 96 yards, 1 TD, 3 rec, 15 yards, 1 TD - 23.1 points

Sit Marshawn Lynch - 

Predicted Stats - 71 yards, 2 rec, 11 yards - 8.2 points

Actual Stats - 71 yards, 2 rec, 5 yards - 7.6 points

WR

Start Brandon Marshall & Alshon Jeffrey -  

Predicted Stats - Marshall: 9 rec, 114 yards, 1 TD - 17.4 points, Jeffrey: 7 rec, 96 yards, 1 TD - 15.6 points

Actual Stats - Marshall: 4 rec, 36 yards, 1 TD - 9.6 points, Jeffrey: 6 rec, 76 yards - 7.6 points

Sit Marques Colston & Steve Smith - 

Predicted Stats: Colston: 4 rec, 51 yards - 5.1 points, Smith: 3 rec, 40 yards - 4.0 points

Actual Stats - Colston: 5 rec, 63 yards - 6.3 points, Smith: 1 rec, 44 yards - 4.4 points

TE

Start Zach Miller - 

Predicted Stats: 6 rec, 62 yards, 1 TD - 12.2 points

Actual Stats - 1 rec, 11 yards, 1 TD - 7.1 points

Sit Coby Fleener -  

Predicted Stats - 4 rec, 32 yards - 3.2 points

Actual Stats - 2 rec, 8 yards - .8 points

Monday, December 23, 2013

2014 Projected Rankings By Position: Wide Receivers

It's never too early to look towards the next Fantasy Football season. Here is part three of my 2014 Pre-Draft Rankings by position. Here we'll look at the Wide Receivers:

Top 10
1. Calvin Johnson
2. Dez Bryant
3. Josh Gordon
4. AJ Green
5. Julio Jones
6. Andre Johnson
7. Brandon Marshall
8. Demaryius Thomas
9. Alshon Jeffrey
10. Antonio Brown

•No surprise at the number one receiver for next season, but the big surprise at the position is Josh Gordon. He's had a great year (you could say he's had a better year than CJ in less games), and has been immune to the Browns' bad quarterback situation. 
•Before Julio Jones went down with an injury he was leading the league in receiving. He should come off draft boards early again next season. 
•Alshon Jeffrey officially made "the leap" this season and is establishing himself as a top wideout in the NFL. 
•Brown sneaks into the top ten being perhaps the most consistent and underrated wide receiver this season. 

Just Missed
DeSean Jackson
Larry Fitzgerald 
Wes Welker
Eric Decker
Pierre Garçon
Vincent Jackson
Jordy Nelson

•There are so many receivers you can add to the "just missed" list, but here are a few that were the closest. 
•If Welker and Decker played on any other team they would be on the top ten list for next season. That could be the case for Decker still. 
•Garçon has had a great season in Washington and with a healthy RGIII next season he could be even better. 
•Jordy Nelson borders WR1 territory with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, but without him he is merely average. 

Sleepers
Percy Harvin
Keenan Allen
Kendall Wright
Michael Floyd

•If Harvin is fully healthy next season, he could be very dangerous, as we've seen in the past. He could be a mid round steal in 2014. 
•Allen has had a fantastic rookie season and will look to improve in 2014. 
•Watch out for Floyd as a deep sleeper. He has made strides in his second season and while Fitzgerald gets most of the attention, Floyd has been nearly as productive. 

Notable Omission
Justin Blackmon

•When Blackmon was on the field in 2013, he was top ten talent at wide receiver. The problem was that his off the field habits keep getting him in trouble. If he gets his head on straight, he could have a monster year. Blackmon could end up being a steal if he lasts the whole season, or another bust if he's suspended again. 

Thursday, December 19, 2013

Week 16 Start 'Em/Sit 'Em

It's Championship Week! Here are a few players who I would start and sit for the final week of the season. Plus a couple bonus players to help out for the all important finals. Good luck!

QB

Start Colin Kaepernick -  Kaepernick has had an up and down season but lately it has been up. The 49ers have been rolling thanks in large part to Kaepernick's play. This week he goes up against the shaky Atlanta defense on Monday Night Football. San Francisco will want to make a statement to the rest of the League that they should be feared and behind it all will be Kaepernick. 

Predicted Stats - 21/31, 265 yards, 2 TD, 51 yards rushing - 23.7 points

Sit Carson Palmer -  Palmer is banged up and played last week with a high ankle sprain. This week he faces the number one defense against quarterbacks in Seattle. This game is in Seattle and weather could be a factor. Larry Fitzgerald is recovering from a concussion sustained at the end of last week's game as well so it's left to be seen how effective he will be as well. 

Predicted Stats - 24/46, 231 yards, 1 TD, 2 Int - 9.24 points

RB

Start Alfred Morris & DeMarco Murray - The two defenses that have allowed the most points to opposing running backs this season square off in Week 16. I expect huge games from both Alfred Morris and DeMarco Murray. The kicker here is if the Cowboys decide to abandon the run like they have done many times this season, Murray's stats could take a hit. Regardless, he should be able to make up for it in the passing game though. 

Predicted Stats - Morris: 126 yards, 2 TD, 1 rec, 7 yards - 25.3 points, Murray: 143 yards, 1 TD, 4 rec, 42 yards - 24.5 points

Sit Marshawn Lynch - Now to the defense that has allowed the least points to opposing running backs, the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals will be tasked with slowing down Marshawn Lynch and I believe they will be successful. Lynch is a very physical runner and the Arizona defense is equally just as physical. This is going to be a very intense game between NFC West rivals and expect the Cardinals defense to come ready. 

Predicted Stats - 71 yards, 2 rec, 11 yards - 8.2 points

WR

Start Brandon Marshall & Alshon Jeffrey - The Bears face the Eagles this week in what is a huge game for both teams and their playoff aspirations. Chicago has one of the best passing attacks in the entire League and Philadelphia has had one of the worst secondaries. Both Marshall and Jeffrey should see a lot of targets (Marshall more than Jeffrey since he is Cutler's absolute go-to guy) and a lot of production. The Eagles have a very slim chance of containing these two beasts in the air. 

Predicted Stats - Marshall: 9 rec, 114 yards, 1 TD - 17.4 points, Jeffrey: 7 rec, 96 yards, 1 TD - 15.6 points

Sit Marques Colston & Steve Smith - The game between the Saints and Panthers will most likely decide the NFC South, so get ready for a good one. Carolina has had one of the best defenses all season and New Orleans hasn't been too far behind. Once both top 10 receivers in the NFL, Colston and Smith have had down years and both will continue to struggle against these stingy defenses. If I had to pick one receiver to break out and have a possible good game it would be Colston. 

Predicted Stats: Colston: 4 rec, 51 yards - 5.1 points, Smith: 3 rec, 40 yards - 4.0 points

TE

Start Zach Miller - Back to the Arizona/Seattle matchup. Tight ends that face the Cardinals this season have been in absolute heaven, as Arizona allows the most points to opposing tight ends. That alone would warrant must start status for Millet, however he has added incentive to perform well in this game. Miller went to high school in Phoenix and played college football at Arizona State University. This game is against his hometown teams and he will want to produce while many of his former teammates and coaches watch on local television in Phoenix. 

Predicted Stats: 6 rec, 62 yards, 1 TD - 12.2 points

Sit Coby Fleener -  This one is simple. Kansas City is the toughest matchup against tight ends, allowing the least amount of points. Plus the Colts offense has not been great since Reggie Wayne went down. Andrew Luck has struggled and this matchup will not be any easier. Leave Fleener on your bench.

Predicted Stats - 4 rec, 32 yards - 3.2 points

Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Week 15 Recap

Here is how my Week 15 Start 'Em/Sit 'Em picks faired:

QB

Start Alex Smith -  

Predicted Stats - 18/26, 229 yards, 2 TD, 26 yards rushing - 19.76 points

Actual Stats - 17/20, 287 yards, 5 TD, 17 yards rushing, 1 fumble lost - 31.18 points

Sit Mike Glennon - 

Predicted Stats - 16/31, 178 yards, 1 TD, 1 Int - 9.12 points

Actual Stats - 18/34, 179 yards, 2 TD, 1 Int - 13.16 points

RB

Start Rashard Mendenhall - 

Predicted Stats - 76 yards, 1 TD, 2 rec, 16 yards - 15.2 points

Actual Stats - 69 yards, 2 TD, 1 rec, 9 yards - 18.8 points

Sit Reggie Bush - 

Predicted Stats - 43 yards, 3 rec, 26 yards - 6.9 points

Actual Stats - 86 yards, 1 TD, 2 rec, 15 yards - 16.1 points

WR

Start Cordarelle Patterson -  

Predicted Stats - 5 rec, 88 yards, 1 TD, 45 yards rushing - 19.3 points

Actual Stats - 5 rec, 35 yards, 1 TD, 15 yards rushing - 11 points

Sit Julian Edelman - 

Predicted Stats: 4 rec, 56 yards - 5.6 points

Actual Stats - 13 rec, 139 yards, 1 TD - 19.9 points

TE

Start Delanie Walker -

Predicted Stats: 6 rec, 72 yards, 1 TD - 13.2 points

Actual Stats - 8 rec, 53 yards, 1 TD - 11.3 points

Sit Dennis Pitta - 

Predicted Stats - 3 rec, 27 yards - 2.7 points

Actual Stats - 2 rec, 24 yards - 2.4 points

Monday, December 16, 2013

2014 Projected Rankings By Position: Running Backs

It's never too early to look towards the next Fantasy Football season. Here is part two of my 2014 Pre-Draft Rankings by position. Here we'll look at the Running Backs:

*Update: switched McCoy and Peterson. I thought I had originally ranked them this way but I guess not. That's why this is reposted again*

Top 10
1. Jamaal Charles
2. LeSean McCoy
3. Adrian Peterson
4. Matt Forte
5. Marshawn Lynch
6. Knowshon Moreno
7. Eddie Lacy
8. DeMarco Murray
9. Alfred Morris
10. Arian Foster

•Jamaal Charles has firmly established himself as the number one overall draft pick for the 2014 fantasy football draft. He has flourished in Andy Reid's offense this season. 
•The top five were pretty easy to come up with, but the next five not so much. Plenty of good talent to choose from but only a few that deliver each and every week. 
•Eddie Lacy is next year's Alfred Morris. He has had a great rookie season and will go into next year as an RB1.

Just Missed
Reggie Bush
CJ Spiller
Giovani Bernard
Andre Brown
Frank Gore

•The presence of Joique Bell will limit Reggie Bush from being an absolute RB1, but the man is still a PPR monster.
•Giovani Bernard could be in the same boat as Lacy but until the Bengals she's the timeshare with BGE, he'll be a tier behind the top options. 
•If Andre Brown stats healthy, is there another RB on the Giants that you trust more? 
•Gore is on the back nine of his career but he still has enough in the tank to be very productive. 

Sleepers
Le'Veon Bell
Zac Stacy

•I really like Le'Veon Bell and Zac Stacy to continue to progress and have solid seasons in 2014. Both will be the unquestioned starter of their teams and have impressed at times this season. Watch out for Stacy in the very tough NFC West though. 

Notable Omissions
Doug Martin
Ray Rice
Maurice Jones-Drew

•Doug Martin has literally fallen off the face of the fantasy earth this season. A most likely top 5 pick in your draft this season, might not even be the starter on his own team next season. 
•I think it's officially time to declare Ray Rice and MJD past their primes. After their dreadful 2013 seasons (Rice more so than Drew), these two once top 5 fantasy backs might be low end RB2's at best in 2014.